Zitamar Podcast

Mozambique's next president: Daniel Chapo?

Wed, 15 May 2024 09:30:00 GMT

Daniel Chapo, governor of the southern Mozambican province of Inhambane, arrived in Matola on 3 May to participate in the ruling party Frelimo's selection of its next presidential candidate. Two days later, he left the meeting as the candidate elect — to the surprise of everyone, including himself.

So who is Daniel Chapo, why has he been selected for the top job, and what can we expect from a likely Chapo presidency?

Zitamar's Tom Bowker, Fernando Lima, and Tomas Queface discuss in this special edition of the Zitamar Podcast.

Read Zitamar's profile of Daniel Chapo here: Who is Daniel Chapo, the prospective next president of Mozambique?

And for more on how the selection was made: Daniel Chapo: the choice that surprised everyone

Image: President Filipe Nyusi (left) with his heir apparent, Daniel Chapo, at the extraordinary meeting of Frelimo's Central Committee in Matola, 5 May 2024. Photo courtesy of Frelimo

Was the 2021 attack on Palma the world's second worst terrorist massacre?

Mon, 29 Apr 2024 15:19:00 GMT

In this edition of the Zitamar Podcast, Zitamar News editor Tom Bowker talks to Alex Perry, the British journalist whose reporting of the siege of the Amarula during the attack on Palma in 2021 won him a major journalism award, and led him to carry out his own survey into exactly how many people were killed as insurgents rampaged through the town. He found that some 1,400 were dead or still missing, two years later; and his figures have now largely been endorsed by ACLED, Zitamar's partner on the Cabo Ligado project. He tells us how the survey came about, how it was conducted, and discusses whether TotalEnergies should bear any responsibility for the tragedy — and if so, whether the company can ever be held accountable.

In part two, Zitamar Podcast host and producer Tom Raine talks to Zitamar collaborator Tavares Cebola about recent developments in contemporary culture in Mozambique — including the rise in electronic music, the Azgo Festival coming up in May, and new theatre productions in central Mozambique.

Sign up to receive Zitamar's daily and weekly newsletters at www.zitamar.com, where you can also become a paying subscriber to receive access to all our breaking and archived news content, and the indispensable Zitamar Daily Briefing.

Mozambique's macroeconomy, the conflict in Cabo Delgado, and Frelimo's indecision

Mon, 08 Apr 2024 12:32:00 GMT

Join Zitamar News' editor in chief, Tom Bowker, in discussion with editor at large Fernando Lima and managing editor Tomás Queface, first recapping developments from Frelimo's Central Committee meeting, then taking a look at Mozambque's macroeconomic situation.

The second half of the podcast features the recording of an online briefing last week by Cabo Ligado, providing an update on the conflict in the north east of the country.

The Cabo Ligado webinar is also available on YouTube, where you can also see the presenters' slideshows: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02eqiNUCkOs

Podcast timestamps:

Part 1: The latest from the Frelimo Central Committee

Part 2: Mozambique macroeconomy update (21:08)

Part 3: Cabo Ligado: Situation update and the unfolding violence in northern Mozambique (41:19)

Visit Zitamar News at www.zitamar.com

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Nyusi keeps Frelimo waiting; and chaos in Cabo Delgado

Fri, 08 Mar 2024 22:25:00 GMT

In this episode, Tom Bowker and Fernando Lima discuss the shadow boxing around who will be Frelimo's next presidential candidate. Could Armando Guebuza make a shock return? Fernando also reports back from a recent visit to Afungi - an oasis of calm and development amid growing chaos and violence elsewhere in Cabo Delgado, as Tom Gould explains.

2024 in Mozambique: 🗳 Elections, 💥 conflict, and ⚽️🏆 the African Cup of Nations

Thu, 18 Jan 2024 11:35:25 GMT

Welcome back to the Zitamar Podcast, with a special episode looking ahead at what 2024 holds for Mozambique.

Zitamar editors Tom Bowker and Fernando Lima discuss general elections due to take place in October - and the fraught processes that Frelimo, Renamo, and MDM face in choosing their candidates.

Tom Gould gives an overview of the current state of play in Cabo Delgado, where a resurgent conflict could derail or at least delay a restart in the LNG project led by TotalEnergies.

And finally, Tavares Cebola joins Tom Raine to discuss Mozambique's participation in the football African Cup of Nations - and a famous victory that almost was.

Visit www.zitamar.com for more insights into Mozambique, and to sign up for our Daily Briefing email. Subscribe to this podcast through Afripods, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Coal, cotton, fuel price inflation – and the chances of a new debt crisis in Mozambique

Wed, 13 Jul 2022 05:49:18 GMT

Hello and welcome to the latest Zitamar Podcast, featuring news and views on Mozambique's political and economic outlook, from the Zitamar team and special guests.

The news round-up focuses on three big stories from the past week. Contributing editor Fernando Lima provides his take on the fuel price rises and the urban transport strikes that have ensued, and looks at how the government can and should respond to them.

He also assesses the likely impact of coal miner Jindal's decision to quit using the Sena rail line to take coal from Tete to the port of Beira, switching instead to its recently acquired export terminal at Nacala. The move is more bad news for Beira and the province of Sofala as a whole.

READ: Jindal drops Beira corridor to send all its coal via Nacala (£)

Then, Zitamar reporter Tom Gould gives us the inside line on the news that Plexus Cotton is ready to walk away from Cabo Delgado, potentially leaving tens of thousands of farmers broke and angry – the opposite of what the government is trying to achieve in the troubled province. Tom was at the Chatham House meeting where Plexus raised the alarm – though we understand talks are ongoing to keep Plexus' Mozambican operation afloat.

READ: Cabo Delgado cotton farmers on the brink as Plexus warns it can't go on

This week features an interview with Charlie Robertson (Twitter's @RencapMan) on how Mozambique's high fertility level could be leading the country into another debt crisis — and how the way to escape the trap is to drastically improve levels of education.

Charlie is chief economist at Renaissance Capital and has been covering Africa for over 10 years. His new book, The Time-Travelling Economist, brings together much of what he has learned over that period, and the conclusions he has drawn – in particular the key roles of fertility, education, and electricity in determining development outcomes.

The book is available to buy on Amazon here, in digital format here, and the whole introduction can be read for free here. The opinion piece which kicked off our conversation is online here: Sociopathic economists and the coming high fertility crisis.

Sign up to our newsletter at www.zitamarnews.substack.com, or through our main website www.zitamar.com, to receive this podcast by email, or you can also find us on podcast apps and on Spotify, which is currently perhaps the easiest way of subscribing to the show and making sure you don't miss an episode.

Until the next time.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit zitamarnews.substack.com/subscribe

Mozambique joins the UN Security Council; insurgents hit Ancuabe; and a look back at Frelimo's Central Committee

Mon, 13 Jun 2022 12:43:01 GMT

Welcome to this week's Zitamar Podcast, featuring news and analysis from Zitamar's editor, Tom Bowker, and the Mozambican journalist and pundit Fernando Lima.

First, Tom and Fernando discussed the reaction in Mozambique to their election as a non-permanent member to the UN Security Council, an event which has instilled a strong feeling of pride within many Mozambicans.

They then turned to news that Cabo Delgado insurgents have extended their offensive into Ancuabe district, the first confirmed attack in the district since the insurgency began four and a half years ago. Fernando and Tom offer their analysis on both the humanitarian consequences of these attacks and the impact to local graphite projects which have been targeted.

You can read more here on the Zitamar News website:

* Insurgents extend offensive into Ancuabe district

* Insurgents behead two workers at Australian mining operation in Ancuabe

We also discussed the Frelimo Central Committee meeting that took place a few weeks ago, with questions remaining over whether President Nyusi will be allowed to run for a third term, and the news that South Africa has ruled against extraditing former finance minister Manuel Chang to the USA, rather than Mozambique.

Sign up to our newsletter at zitamarnews.substack.com, or through our main website zitamar.com, to receive this podcast by email. You can also find us on podcast apps and on Spotify, probably the easiest way of subscribing to the show and making sure you don't miss an episode.

Make sure to share, review and subscribe to the Zitamar Podcast wherever you find it.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit zitamarnews.substack.com/subscribe

Mozambique this week: Sovereign savings, East African partners, and a a fossil-fuelled future

Sat, 30 Apr 2022 14:12:31 GMT

Welcome to this week's Zitamar Podcast, featuring news and analysis from the Zitamar team who discuss the week's most important events.

The war in Ukraine has meant talk of a transition away from fossil fuels has taken a back seat — particularly in places like Mozambique, which could be an important provider of coal and gas as western countries stop buying from Russia.

Brazilian mining company Vale this week tied up its sale of the Moatize coal mining project to India's Jindal — then revealed that the project had had perhaps its most profitable quarter ever, in Q1 this year.

Vale's coal mine turns 38% profit as prices spike ahead of cut-price sale to Jindal

A senior official at the energy ministry confirmed Mozambique cannot afford to stop exporting coal — and his boss, minister Max Tonela, said the gas industry will bring new opportunities.

We should soon hear from the IMF about its outlook for the Mozambican economy, but all the signs are that it sees gas as crucial to Mozambique's future. One way the gas revenues can affect the future of Mozambique is through the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund — and one of the conversations you'll hear in this podcast is with sovereign wealth fund expert Andrew Bauer, on the pitfalls Mozambique needs to look out for if it goes down that road. This section starts on 15:51 minutes.

Tanzania is also looking to get its dormant LNG project off the ground, something that will play in to increasingly complex relationships between Mozambique and its neighbours in East Africa and the Great Lakes. In the wake of President Nyusi's trip to Uganda this week, we spoke to Peter Bofin of the Cabo Ligado project to try and unpick the different dynamics at play. Peter's interview begins at 33:33.

But we start off with a look back at the week's political and economic developments, with Zitamar editor Tom Bowker, and Mozambican journalist Fernando Lima.

Sign up to our newsletter at zitamarnews.substack.com, or through our main website www.zitamar.com, to receive this podcast by email, or you can also find us on podcast apps and on Spotify, which is currently perhaps the easiest way of subscribing to the show and making sure you don't miss an episode.

RECENT POSTS

* Eight consortia vie for Mphanda Nkuwa megaproject

* Vale's coal mine turns 38% profit as prices spike ahead of cut-price sale to Jindal

* Mozambique and Malawi plan joint infrastructure projects

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit zitamarnews.substack.com/subscribe

Local militias in Mozambique; looking forward to elections; and when will the LNG project restart?

Sun, 24 Apr 2022 06:57:24 GMT

Welcome to this week's Zitamar Podcast, featuring news and analysis from the Zitamar team who discuss the week's most important events.

As well as our regular look-back at the week's news, this podcast features two excellent interviews with special guests. The first is Corinna Jentzsch, whose new book: Violent Resistance: Militia Formation and Civil War in Mozambique looks at the use of local militia in Mozambique's civil war with Renamo. She discusses what lessons can be drawn from that experience, to understand what's happening today in Cabo Delgado.

In the third section, journalist and veteran Mozambique election-watcher Joe Hanlon shares his views on what to expect in the coming electoral cycle.

The podcast starts with a look back at the biggest news stories of the week, with Zitamar editor Tom Bowker, and consulting editor Fernando Lima — the author of an article published on Monday looking into the issues determining when the Mozambique LNG project, operated by TotalEnergies, is going to restart.

See: Pressure grows for Mozambique LNG restart, but security challenges remain

That was followed on Tuesday with our report that Rwandan troops have been deployed to Macomia — outside of the two districts of immediate importance to the gas projects

See: Rwandan troops in Cabo Delgado deploy to Macomia district

Bowker and Lima also discuss the visit to Mozambique of Malawian president Lazarus Chakwera, and the announcement of a list of companies competing to build the massive Mphanda Nkuwa dam project.

Sign up to our newsletter at zitamarnews.substack.com, or through our main website zitamar.com, to receive the podcast by email — and make sure to share, review and subscribe to the Zitamar Podcast on your preferred podcast provider.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit zitamarnews.substack.com/subscribe

IMF return brings hope for Mozambique's troubled economy

Sat, 02 Apr 2022 10:02:06 GMT

Welcome to this week's Zitamar Podcast, featuring news and analysis from the Zitamar team who discuss the week's most important events, including analysis on civil servants returning to Mocímboa to Praia and insights from the annual private sector conference, CASP.

First, Zitamar News editor Tom Bowker spoke with Mozambican journalist and podcast regular Fernando Lima about the news that the IMF had agreed a new three-year programme with Mozambique, subject to executive board approval. The Fund announced the decision on Monday afternoon, and later that night, President Filipe Nyusi gave his take on developments, at a Frelimo party function in Inhambane — using it to get in a dig at his predecessor as president, Armando Guebuza.

We've included a short clip of Nyusi's comments, in Portuguese; find the full 6-minute audio on Telegram here.

Then, we turned to Cabo Delgado, where sources have suggested that civil servants may be returning back to Mocímboa da Praia, one of the first towns that was captured by insurgents when the conflict began in 2017. Our correspondent in the north, who prefers to remain anonymous, comments on these claims and casts doubts over their legitimacy.

The new Cabo Ligado weekly report is available here:

Cabo Ligado Weekly - March 2022

We then turned to news that Renamo has announced a "shadow government" to present alternative ideas on the development of Mozambique ahead of the next local elections in 2023 and general elections in 2024. Once again, analysis is provided by journalist Fernando Lima.

Finally we return to the economy, as the annual private sector conference CASP took place in Maputo this week. Businesspeople were in a downbeat mood after the central bank had raised interest rates earlier in the week, given supply constraints domestically and worldwide; but as Fernando explains, there was optimism from the government that the economy is on the right track.

Also this week from Zitamar News:

New gas bottling facility launched as part of mass switching campaign (£)

Sign up to our newsletter at zitamarnews.substack.com, or through our main website www.zitamar.com, to receive this podcast by email, or you can also find us on podcast apps and on Spotify, probably the easiest way of subscribing to the show and making sure you don't miss an episode.

Make sure to share, review and subscribe to the Zitamar Podcast wherever you find it.

Until next week, goodbye.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit zitamarnews.substack.com/subscribe

Zitamar Weekly: Coal, politics, and Cabo Delgado

Sat, 26 Mar 2022 14:10:24 GMT

Welcome to a jam-packed Zitamar Podcast, featuring news and analysis from the Zitamar team and special guests joining us to discuss the week's most important events, including analysis on the Cabo Delgado conflict and the announcement of local elections next year.

🎧 [01:14] First, Zitamar News editor Tom Bowker spoke with experts on the sale of a huge coal mine in Tete province to Indian company Jindal. The mine has been controversial ever since it opened more than a decade ago, for the environmental and social impacts it has had — particularly given a lack of transparency from either the company or the government. And with this new deal — approved by the government this week — there are fears things could get even worse.

🎧 [1:38] Erika Mendes of Mozambican environmental NGO Justiça Ambiental explained how the local community in Moatize has been and continues to be negatively impacted by the coal mine — and her fears for how things will develop under new ownership.

🎧 [11:35] Then Tim Buckley, a renowned expert on energy transition issues in India, China, and his home country Australia, where he heads up the think tank Climate Energy Finance, explained why India is the natural buyer for Mozambican coal — even though they too are talking about gradually weaning themselves off the dirty fuel. He started by explaining how India's companies ended up on a big international coal-buying spree — which also included the deal which saw ICVL buy Rio Tinto's coal mines in Moatize in 2014.

For more on this story, our article from February is now outside the paywall:

Jindal coal mine takeover raises fears for jobs, communities — and 'greenwash'

Mozambican journalist and Zitamar Podcast regular Fernando Lima joined us to give his thoughts on the political scene in Mozambique, as municipal elections are scheduled for October next year [14:49]. He and Zitamar editor Tom Bowker also discussed whether the state should do more to ensure suppliers to government projects are producing their raw materials legally [17:01].

🎧 [21:21] Finally Piers Pigou, an analyst on the Cabo Ligado project, brought us up to date on efforts to win outside funding for the Rwandan and SADC military deployments in Cabo Delgado — and what might happen if no funding materialises.

His latest article on that topic is published on Zitamar here:

Nyusi seeks to shore up Cabo Delgado support

The full Cabo Ligado monthly report is available here:

Cabo Ligado Monthly: February 2022

Sign up to our newsletter at zitamarnews.substack.com, or through our main website zitamar.com, to receive this podcast by email, or you can also find us on podcast apps and on Spotify, which is currently perhaps the easiest way of subscribing to the show and making sure you don't miss an episode.

Until next week, goodbye.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit zitamarnews.substack.com/subscribe

Musical chairs in Nyusi's government ahead of crucial Frelimo Congress later this year

Thu, 03 Mar 2022 21:20:42 GMT

Filipe Nyusi completed the biggest reshuffle of his presidency on Thursday, naming Adriano Maleiane as the new Prime Minister, and promoting energy minister Max Tonela to replace Maleiane at the finance ministry.

A number of other ministers were also moved, but Celso Correia, believed to be Nyusi's first choice for prime minister, instead stayed in position at the agriculture ministry.

The reshuffle comes in the context of an increasingly tense atmosphere within the ruling party Frelimo, which is due to decide later this year on who will be its presidential candidate at the next elections in 2024.

Leading Mozambican journalist and political analyst Fernando Lima joined Zitamar editor Tom Bowker this evening to talk through the changes.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit zitamarnews.substack.com/subscribe

Armando Guebuza testifies in Mozambique's 'hidden debts' trial

Fri, 18 Feb 2022 13:51:03 GMT

Welcome to the Zitamar Podcast — back after a hiatus. We have some good episodes coming up in the pipeline, but couldn't resist a quick episode today to talk about the showdown currently going on at the hidden debts trial.

Former President Armando Guebuza is wrapping up his two-day testimony today, having yesterday — as expected — tried as far as possible to pin the blame for the $2bn scandal on his successor, Filipe Nyusi, who at the time was the country's defence minister.

I called up Fernando Lima, who was in court yesterday, to discuss the implications of these momentous two days, for the future of Mozambican politics.

Read our report on Thursday's hearing here:

Guebuza says Nyusi should answer 'hidden debt' questions

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🎧 The 'hidden debts' and two presidents, Nyusi vs Guebuza; and how Europe might finance the counter-insurgent coalition

Fri, 28 Jan 2022 12:45:42 GMT

In today's Zitamar Podcast, Fernando Lima talks about the latest developments in the 'hidden debts' trial, where pressure is still high for current president Nyusi to testify. Meanwhile, his predecessor, Armando Guebuza, is said to be preparing to take advantage of the public platform of his testimony, due next month, to damage Nyusi — something the current government is now seeking to avoid.

In part two, Piers Pigou, a consultant with Crisis Group and Cabo Ligado, joins us to discuss the prospects for EU funding for Rwandan and/or SADC military deployments in Cabo Delgado — concluding that combining the two separate missions could bring benefits both politically and on the ground.

Piers' latest piece on the SADC deployment, for Cabo Ligado, is now available on the Zitamar website, here:

Sobering SAMIM assessment reflects mission's inadequacies and the insurgency's evolution

Thanks for listening, and have a great weekend.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit zitamarnews.substack.com/subscribe

🎧 The danger of Mozambique's storms and roads; Prospects for peace in Cabo Delgado

Thu, 27 Jan 2022 13:20:47 GMT

Welcome back to the Zitamar Podcast. Joining me today is Tomás Queface, a Mozambican analyst on the Cabo Ligado project and one of my regular go-to people to help me understand what's going on in Mozambique.

We discuss the ongoing fall-out from the tragic road accident in Zambezia last weekend, the effects of tropical storm Ana, and the news that Lesotho is considering pulling its troops out of Cabo Delgado.

Tomás also talks us through his recent piece on the role of religious organisations in mediating peace in Cabo Delgado:

Will religious organisations have a role in mediating the Cabo Delgado conflict?

Thanks as ever for listening,

Tom Bowker — editor, Zitamar News

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit zitamarnews.substack.com/subscribe

🎧 Mozambique's economy on the mend; Mopeia victims abandoned; and East Africa's jihadi propaganda war

Tue, 25 Jan 2022 21:15:33 GMT

Welcome to another edition of the Zitamar Podcast.

Today, regular guest Fernando Lima, a senior Mozambican journalist and the publisher of Savana and Mediacoop, joins me to discuss the issues of the day, including the prospects for Mozambique's economy in 2022, and the official reaction to the weekend's road crash tragedy which has killed 28 people.

In part 2, Peter Bofin of Cabo Ligado talks us through his analysis of recruitment propaganda from Islamic State and also Al Shabaab in East Africa, and how their rivalry could be helping fuel the conflict in Cabo Delgado.

Thanks again for listening,

Tom Bowker, editor, Zitamar News

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit zitamarnews.substack.com/subscribe

🎧 The Zitamar Podcast — free to listen

Mon, 24 Jan 2022 21:14:30 GMT

Hello, and welcome to the Zitamar News Podcast, taking you behind the headlines in Mozambique.

This week on the podcast — now outside the paywall — I'll be interviewing my colleagues from Cabo Ligado, who have just published the latest Monthly Report (available here).

In today's episode, ACLED's Senior Researcher for Mozambique, and long-time Zitamar collaborator, Sam Ratner joins me to give an overview of the direction the insurgency in northern Mozambique has taken over the last two months.

I'm also joined (from 19min55) by Zitamar reporter Pamela Machado who explains how a new policy under the European Union's Green New Deal could have an outsized negative effect on Mozambique. And this time, it's not about gas.

Story: EU carbon policy could hit Mozambique aluminium exports

Stay tuned all week for more news and analysis on Mozambique — and look out for our new podcast appearing in your favourite podcast app.

Thank you for listening — and please feel free to reply to this email with any feedback, and forward to your contacts who might find it interesting.

Tom Bowker — Editor, Zitamar News

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit zitamarnews.substack.com/subscribe

A Webinar on Mozambique's Debt Crisis

Fri, 27 Jan 2017 12:36:23 GMT

On 25 January 2017, Zitamar News and Africa Research Institute hosted a webinar on Mozambique's debt crisis via YouTube Live.

The webinar is hosted by Tom Bowker, editor of Zitamar News, and features a panel of four experts:

Tariq Hamoodi, Partner at Bybrook Capital, London
Dr Roberto Tibana, Principal Consultant at Analitica-RJT, Maputo, Mozambique
Anne Frühauf, Senior Vice President with Teneo Intelligence, Bogota, Colombia
Dr Joseph Hanlon, Visiting Senior Fellow at the London School of Economics and at the Open University, based in London

Please note that some sections of the audio have been cut for this recording, due to poor sound quality.

The original broadcast is available on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h62LLithnV4

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit zitamarnews.substack.com/subscribe